And this was under a middle-of-the-road climate scenario, one where some progress is made on curbing emissions. By 2080, populations of frogs would be going extinct in 62 percent of the scenarios they ran. Seventeen and 7 percent may not seem like a lot, but they add up. But the warmth could temporarily wake them up, causing them to burn calories that they can’t replace until snowmelt. Normally, they hibernate all winter and save energy. ![]() It’s possible that warmer winters could harm the frogs, too, and not just summers. Adult survival is expected to decrease by 7 percent by 2080 - and since the adults lay the eggs, that has a big impact on the total population numbers. Their model showed that 17 percent more tadpoles would die due to pond drying by 2080.Īdult frogs won’t escape, either. If they dry up too soon, so do the tadpoles. Most of the ponds tadpoles hatch in are seasonal and fed by snowmelt, so some disappear by the end of the summer. They have gills and lack lungs, and they can’t breathe outside of water. Unlike adult frogs, tadpoles are fully aquatic. That data showed that warmer summers had the biggest impact on tadpoles. Related: Snowpack In The West Has Resisted Climate Change But That Won't Last Forever Then, they combined that data with models of how specific watersheds and ponds were expected to change because of global warming. The results were clear: warm, dry winters meant less frogs. It’s also isolated, and amphibian-killing diseases such as chytrid fungus are rare there. ![]() ![]() Kissel says Olympic National Park is a perfect place to study the effects of climate change on frogs because it’s protected from the sorts of land-use changes, like logging, that hurt or help native animals. For 15 years, researchers have trekked miles through the early-summer Olympics snow to their study sites, where they tagged adult frogs and tracked their abundance.
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